If you were paying attention to my blog a year ago, I took part in the 10 for 2010 meme which was doing the rounds. So now it’s all over, how did my predictions fare? Not quite so well as I’d hoped, unfortunately:
My 10 Predictions:
- Barack Obama’s approval ratings will improve, but the Democrats will nonetheless have a disappointing set of mid-terms.
- . The Lib Dems will gain more seats at the general election than they lose.
- Any hung parliament which may arise from the general election will not produce a full coalition government, but instead the Lib Dems will offer confidence and supply to the party with most votes.
- The Tories will suffer serious internal divisions over climate change.
- Steven Moffatt’s era of Doctor Who will be darker than RTDs, it will continue his obsession with the Doctor “dancing”, and Matt Smith will be better than David Tennant.
- Lawrence Miles will not give up watching, or indeed commenting on, the series. He will, however, start an exciting new direction.
- The financial position of the Labour party will bring its continued existence into serious question.
- David Dimbleby will remain host of Question Time
- The Green party will do better than the BNP at the general election.
- Marc Maron will successfully monetise WTF, and will still be making the podcast at the end of the year.
Half right. The Democrats certainly had a disappointing set of mid-terms, but sadly it wasn’t even in the context of Obama’s approval ratings improving (see here, for instance). Instead, they drifted slightly downwards over the year, though you couldn’t really call it a precipitous drop; compared to the previous year it’s pretty much a flat line.
No, we gained 8 but lost 13, in a result which surprised many of us at the time.
No, it looked like that for a bit during the coalition negotiations, and had Clegg and Cameron not been so set on pulling a full coalition together it might have been, but in the end I was wrong on this one too.
Not really, unfortunately.
Matt Smith is better than David Tennant. As for “darker”, well, visually it is, but whether you could really call the tone of it darker is less obvious. “Dancing” not as bad as it could have been, but certainly present. I’ll count this as largely correct, though.
Well he may have stopped watching it (properly, anyway), but he’s still commenting so far. As for new directions, well… does this count? Of course, he might well have started any number of exciting new directions of which I am, as yet, unaware.
Well, you certainly couldn’t say they’re in rude health, but the party isn’t quite dead yet, it seems.
Yes, it got an MP elected. No, the BNP won nearly twice as many votes. Which is more important? You decide.
Don’t know how successful he’s been in monetising it, but he seems to be doing OK, and still going strong.
So I make that about a 50% hit rate. Which suggests that my considered opinion on a given subject is about as accurate as flipping a coin. Ho hum.
I also made some resolutions:
- I must stop putting off getting myself organised.
- I must endeavour to get along to my first Spring Conference.
- I must rationalise my finances.
- I must blog more.
- I must make a dent in the stack of books which I’ve bought but not read yet.
Well, some of those are rather less quantifiable. I certainly did get to Spring Conference, but I probably didn’t really blog any more than before. I did read some of the books in question, but then again I acquired more to take their place in the yet to be read pile. The other two… well, nothing’s gone catastrophically wrong with my life yet, so I guess I’m doing OK at those.