Well, another year has been and gone (any amazing late-breaking developments notwithstanding), so it’s time to look back at my success (or more likely otherwise) in predicting anything that was going to happen this year.
Here, then, are the predictions I made:
The coalition will survive through the year.
Correct. 1 point.
The “Yes” campaign will win the AV referendum.
Incorrect. Nul points.
Whilst the year will start with Michael Gove looking increasingly insecure in his position, it will ultimately be Andrew Lansley whose position is threatened most, after his ambitious and rapid set of NHS reforms inevitably come a cropper somewhere along the line.
Well, ultimately Lansley is still in post, but I think it’s fair to say that the general gist of this is right – at one point during the year, there was quite serious speculation about whether Lansley was secure in his job, because the NHS reforms had somewhat blown up in his face (with a little help from us, naturally). 1 point.
David Laws will return to government.
Not yet, alas, but there’s nothing blocking it any longer, after the Standards and Privileges committee made its ruling back in May, and Laws was given a week’s suspension from the house as a (somewhat heavy handed relative to those of many other less forgiveable expenses abusers) punishment. 0 points.
The decision on Murdoch’s attempt to take complete control of BSkyB will ultimately be to deny him his wish, having first undergone several months more investigation.
An awkward one, this. Ultimately Murdoch was more or less forced to withdraw the bid as a result of the phone hacking scandal, rather than as a result of deliberations about media plurality directly. Having said that, it seems that campaigners for media plurality have indeed had their hand strengthened by the results of this process. Half a point.
Lib Dem autumn conference will see attacks on the leadership, with councillors who lost their seats in May out for blood.
Well, not so much as you’d notice, really. Despite some none-too-subtle positioning by Mr. Farron, actual slagging off of the leadership was fairly muted at conference, much to the frustration of the media present. In part, this could be credited to Federal Conference Committee, who did much to selflessly draw the anger of conference-goers in their own direction. 0 points.
The economy will not suffer a double dip, although it will start the year sluggishly, and by the end of the year things will be looking up.
Well, the first half of this is certainly true of 2011, though whether the optimistic second half of the prediction could be said to be true is a bit more of a stretch, what with the eurozone crisis still very much unresolved as we head into 2012. Half a point.
Lib Dem leadership will contribute to progress on a legal vehicle at COP 17.
Well, whether the term “legal vehicle” could be said to be equivalent to an “agreed outcome with legal force”, I will leave to better legal minds than me, but I think it’s fair to say that European leadership, and within that Lib Dem leadership in the UK, has contributed to a positive (though sadly not positive enough, yet) outcome at COP 17. 1 point.
Alan Johnson will not be Shadow Chancellor by the end of the year.
True. Not 20 days into 2011, this not-too-surprising prediction came off nicely. 1 point.
The Independent will not be being published in its current form by the end of the year.
Not happened, unless you count a redesign with a spanky new masthead (which I don’t). 0 points.
House of Lords reform will not be scuppered by the House of Lords itself, and by the end of the year it will be fairly certain that elections for the House of Lords will take place within the next 10 years.
Well, the atmosphere of doom around this has somewhat subsided, and it certainly hasn’t been scuppered yet. Having said that, I don’t think I can really give this one – more work still to do! 0 points.
So, overall, I make that 5 points out of a possible 11.
Still about as accurate as flipping a coin then!